ARLP049 Propagation de KT7H: November 25, 1996

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA November 25, 1996
To all radio amateurs

ARLP049 Propagation de KT7H

This is a special propagation bulletin.

The recent rise in solar flux continued over the weekend to an unexpected level. On Sunday WWV reported that the solar flux was 100, a level which we have not seen since September, 1994.

In ARLP049 I asked if the recent rise might be the end of the doldrums and the start of significant activity in Cycle 23. I'm not certain, but I believe the areas that are causing all the activity are near the Sun's equator, which suggests that they might be some improbable last gasp from the previous cycle.

The flux numbers given in this weekly bulletin are always the noon measurements from the Penticton, BC observatory, but there are actually three per day. Below is a table of each flux value for every day since the last bulletin:

11/21/96 1800 UTC: 74.2
11/21/96 2000 UTC: 74.4
11/21/96 2200 UTC: 75.5
11/22/96 1800 UTC: 79.5
11/22/96 2000 UTC: 82.6
11/22/96 2200 UTC: 82.3
11/23/96 2200 UTC: 95.0
11/23/96 2000 UTC: 91.0
11/23/96 1800 UTC: 90.6
11/24/96 1800 UTC: 103.5
11/24/96 2000 UTC: 99.8
11/24/96 2200 UTC: 104.2
11/25/96 1800 UTC: 103.6

The latest forecast from NOAA SESC is for a flux around 105 for November 25.

Thanks to Cary Oler for the above data. Cary has a very interesting and informative web page with solar data and current solar images at