ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 5, 1999

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 5, 1999
To all radio amateurs

ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV

Average solar flux was down, and sunspot numbers were up this past week. This is because solar flux peaked at 197.3 on October 27, and the high sunspot values were on October 26, 28 and 29, when they were 200, 214 and 217. Since the reporting week for this bulletin began on October 28, this made some funny averages.

At least over the past week geomagnetic disturbances had died down. Planetary K indices over the past few days have often been 1 or 2, and even 0 on November 3.

Solar flux should rise over the next few days, with the Friday through Sunday values at 150, 155 and 165. Planetary A indices for those days are predicted to be 7, 7 and 15, and the mid-latitude, or Fredericksburg A indices are predicted to be 5, 10 and 15. So for the ARRL CW Sweepstakes this weekend conditions could start to get a little rough on Sunday. Geomagnetic indices may remain high through the week, and solar flux may peak on the following weekend around 190 or 200. Another peak in solar flux may return around November 23 or 24.

Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3 were 196, 214, 217, 194, 178, 124 and 117 with a mean of 177.1. 10.7 cm flux was 183.9, 179.6, 169.4, 160.4, 150.6, 142.8 and 143.1, with a mean of 161.4, and estimated planetary A indices were 16, 10, 7, 10, 10, 6 and 5, with a mean of 9.1.

Path projections are for this weekend's ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest.