ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 19, 1999

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 19, 1999
To all radio amateurs

ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar flux and sunspot numbers were up this week. Average solar flux was up almost 40 points from last week's average flux, and average sunspot numbers were up by almost 50 points. The most active geomagnetic day was Saturday, November 13, when the planetary A index was 31 and the K index rose as high as 5.

This weekend for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes expect a solar flux of 210, 200 and 200 on Friday through Sunday, and planetary A index of 20, 20 and 12 for the same three days. The absorption on Friday and Saturday could be a little rough for HF operators, but by Sunday it may die down.

After the weekend expect the solar flux to bottom out around 150 from November 26 until the end of the month, then rise above 200 around December 6. From November 29 to December 3 geomagnetic conditions should be stable, with another rough patch around December 4-6.

Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17 were 340, 324, 251, 232, 213, 231 and 248 with a mean of 262.7. 10.7 cm flux was 239.8, 231.9, 223.8, 218.8, 205.6, 233.4 and 221.3, with a mean of 224.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 23, 10, 31, 10, 6, 16 and 10, with a mean of 15.1.

Here are some path projections for the contest this weekend.