ARLP044 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 3, 2000

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 3, 2000
To all radio amateurs

ARLP044 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity was up for the past week. During the CQ Worldwide DX Phone Contest, geomagnetic activity rose through the weekend, reaching storm levels on Sunday. Both the mid-latitude and planetary K indices reached 5, and the A indices were 24 and 26, respectively. The Alaskan College K index, which is higher during high geomagnetic activity due to its high latitude, was 6 over two periods and the A index was 41 for Sunday, indicating a severe geomagnetic storm. No doubt contest operators in Fairbanks experienced dead HF conditions.

Average sunspot numbers were up nearly 19 points and average solar flux was up nearly 26 points compared to the previous week. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP043 mentioned a predicted solar flux peaking around 190 on November 2. The noon flux reading at Penticton on Thursday was 196.3, but flux values are now expected to peak around 200 on November 3 or 4. Solar flux is expected to decline below 190 by November 8, then reach a broad minimum around 160 between November 11-17.

A coronal hole has been developing in the center of the solar disk facing earth, and this could cause some unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the next few days. Currently the planetary A index is predicted at 20 for November 4 and 15 for the next day, followed by quiet conditions until November 10 when it may be 15 again. A planetary A index of 15 is also predicted for November 13 and 15, and on November 17 and 18 the projected A index is 20 and 25, based on the previous solar rotation.

Average solar flux for October was 167.7. For June through September it was 179.8, 200.5, 163.1 and 201.7.

For this weekend we have path projections for the ARRL November CW Sweepstakes Contest.

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1 were 113, 113, 153, 163, 158, 135 and 206 with a mean of 148.7. 10.7 cm flux was 171, 175.9, 182.2, 187.1, 193.7, 193.4 and 204.4, with a mean of 186.8, and estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 19, 26, 13, 11 and 6 with a mean of 12.4.