ARLP008 Propagation de K7VVV:
February 23, 2001

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA February 23, 2001
To all radio amateurs

ARLP007 Propagation de K7VVV

The sun continues to be quiet, and this really looks like a significant decline in activity. Average daily sunspot numbers for the first and second weeks of this month were 149.1 and 143.7, and it was 124.1 for this past week. The average solar flux for each of those same weeks also declined. It was 164.9, 150.7 and 136.1. Solar flux last Friday was 129.6. Flux values have not been this low since May 6, 2000, when the flux was 126.8, and on January 29, 2000 when it was 127.7. If the peak in the cycle was in mid- 2000, then these numbers possibly were on the other side of the cycle peak.

The forecast for the next few days shows solar flux values of 150 for Friday and Saturday and 145 for Sunday and Monday. Planetary A index is predicted to be a very quiet five on all of those days. Solar flux is expected to dip again to around 135 on the last day of this month--next Wednesday--then rise to around 165 for the first week of March.

Scott Craig is looking for some volunteers to beta test version 3.11 of his solar plotting software. You can email him for this test only at

We are about a month away from the spring equinox, when some of the best seasonal HF conditions prevail. Look for 20-meter openings later into the evening. Ten meters will probably be good for only another two months or so, so now through the equinox is probably the best time to work that band.

Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 were 113, 133, 95, 143, 147, 119 and 119 with a mean of 124.1. The 10.7-cm flux was 135.1, 129.6, 129.8, 132, 137, 145.5 and 143.6, with a mean of 136.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 6 with a mean of 5.

Our path projection for this week is for 40 meters only, and only to Great Britain for this weekend's RSGB 7 MHz Contest, which is CW only. To England, from: