ARLP025 Propagation de K7VVV:
June 15, 2001

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP023
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA June 15, 2001
To all radio amateurs

ARLP025 Propagation de K7VVV

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. Average daily sunspot numbers were up nearly 75 points and average daily solar flux was up more than 26 points. The daily sunspot number peaked on Saturday at 250, dipped, and rose again to 249 on Monday. Daily sunspot numbers have not been that high since the big jump in activity around the end of March.

Disturbed days were Saturday and Sunday, when planetary A indices were 20, and the planetary K index was five over two three-hour reporting periods. The high latitude College A index was 28 and 31 over the same two days.

Solar flux rose to 194.7 on Thursday, but is expected to dip below 170 this weekend. Predicted planetary A index is 10 for Friday and Saturday and 15 for Sunday.

On Wednesday a strong solar flare was released from sunspot group 9502. It propelled a coronal mass ejection from the sun's eastern limb, pointed away from earth. The sun is currently covered with small sunspots, and there is a possibility of more flare activity on Friday.

Here are some path projections for the All Asian DX Contest (CW) this weekend. These are all based on propagation toward Japan.

Sunspot numbers for June 7 through 13 were 163, 179, 250, 217, 249, 193 and 221, with a mean of 210.3. The 10.7 cm flux was 164.8, 180.2, 177, 163, 162.4, 166.4 and 181.4, with a mean of 170.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 8, 20, 20, 10, 7 and 14 with a mean of 13.