ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV:
June 22, 2001

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA June 22, 2001
To all radio amateurs

ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV

All solar indicators rose this week. New sunspots emerged, and the average daily sunspot number for this week rose over 43 points. Average solar flux was up 32 points. 289 was the sunspot number on Sunday, the highest since April 1, when it was 320. Around the end of March there was a huge increase in sunspots, which will probably move the smoothed value for the peak of Cycle 23 to a later season than earlier assumed. Over the past two weeks we have witnessed another large run up in activity, although not quite as sharp but perhaps a little more sustained than the increase at the end of March.

A strong interplanetary shock wave struck earth on Monday, beginning its journey last Friday from a coronal mass ejection. The ejection was not aimed toward earth, but as it expanded through the gaseous interplanetary medium it created a shock wave that affected earth's magnetosphere. The result was a planetary A index on Monday of 34.

Solar flux for Friday through Monday is expected to be 205, 205, 200 and 195. Geomagnetic conditions should be fairly stable, with a predicted planetary A index of 10, 10, 10 and 12 for the same days.

Interest in conditions for Field Day this weekend is running high. We have just passed the summer solstice, and from now until the end of the year the days get shorter. Several months from now we will be back to fall conditions, with better 10 and 12 meter openings, especially in the higher latitudes.

But this weekend Field Day operators will not be concentrating on working DX, because the focus of the operating event is on making lots of contacts while operating in the field. We will present some path projections, but the targets will all be domestic. For those interested in racking up points, remember that the emphasis is on the number of contacts, not number of states, sections or countries worked, since those don't count for multipliers.

Here are the path projections, based on an average solar flux of 203. Since Alaska and Hawaii are often neglected in this bulletin, we will begin with them. The lists will get shorter for subsequent target areas, because the same paths have already been shown in a previous target. Remember the paths work both ways! If you want to do your own projections, download W6ELprop from the W6ELprop Web site.

Sunspot numbers for June 14 through 20 were 273, 264, 276, 289, 220, 222 and 232 with a mean of 253.7. 10.7 cm flux was 194.7, 196.9, 207.6, 204.6, 221.3, 195.4 and 198.5, with a mean of 202.7, and estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 7, 9, 34, 14 and 15 with a mean of 14.3.