ARLP007 Propagation de K7VVV:
February 15, 2002

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA February 15, 2002
To all radio amateurs

ARLP007 Propagation de K7VVV

Average daily solar flux and sunspot numbers both declined over the past week. Solar flux reached a low around 192 around February 7 and 8, but then jumped higher near 217 over the weekend.

The best current guess is for flux values to remain between 190 and 195 from now through Tuesday, then rise to a peak near 240 or 245 around February 24-28.

On February 14 around 0250z a coronal mass ejection headed toward earth, and this should cause geomagnetic upset around February 16- 17, just in time for the ARRL CW DX Contest. This isn't good news for contesters, although it is possible that the effects could be mild. If not, then expect greater absorption, especially on the polar paths. There is also the possibility of a visible aurora, especially in northern latitudes.

Last week's bulletin mentioned the piece by K9LA explaining the numbers in this bulletin as well as some basic propagation concepts. This now has a home on the ARRL web site at .

Here are some path projections for the DX contest this weekend from various spots around the U.S. This is a best guess for band openings, assuming geomagnetic indices don't go really high.

Sunspot numbers for February 7 through 13 were 178, 229, 225, 205, 206, 182 and 158 with a mean of 197.6. 10.7 cm flux was 191.7, 191.5, 199.4, 216.5, 201.7, 208.3 and 203.5, with a mean of 201.8, and estimated planetary A indices were 14, 10, 9, 8, 13, 6 and 10 with a mean of 10.