ARLP039 Propagation de KT7H: September 15, 1995

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
Seattle, WA September 15, 1995
To all radio amateurs

ARLP039 Propagation de KT7H

The sun was spotless over most of last week. The solar flux was down an average of five points, and every day the flux was below the 90 day flux average, which declined from 74 to 73 last week.

Not only has the sunspot and solar flux picture been poor for HF propagation, but geomagnetic activity has been unsettled to active. This may continue over the next day when this bulletin is written, and then is expected to fade into a quiet period from September 23 through October 1. Recurring coronal holes are expected to return with active geomagnetic conditions October 2 through 5, and again around October 8.

Solar flux should rise slightly to the mid seventies around September 22, and then fade back to lower levels around 70 or below. This has a depressive effect on HF propagation, but there should still be some good openings over north-south paths.

Sunspot Numbers for September 7 through 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12 and 11, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.1, 68.7, 68, 68, 68.6 and 69.2, with a mean of 68.8.

This week's path projection is to Brazil from Hawaii, Anchorage, Alaska, and San Diego, California.

From Hawaii 80 meters should be open from 0430z to 0930z, and 40 meters from 0330z to 1030z. Check 30 meters from 0230z to 0830z and again from 1030z to 1130z. 20 meters should be open from 0030z to 0700z, 17 meters from 1630z to 0530z and 15 meters from 1730z to 0430z. Check 12 meters from 1800z to 0330z, with best signals from 1900z to 0130z and 10 meters from 1900z to 0130z, with the best bet from 2000z to 2300z.

From Anchorage check 80 meters from 0330z to 0930z, 40 meters from 0230z to 0830z, 30 meters from 0100z to 0600z and 20 meters from 2200z to 0300z. 17 meters should be open some days from 1930z to 2300z.

From San Diego 80 meters looks good from 0200z to 1000z, and 40 meters from 0100z to 1030z. 30 meters should be open from 0000z to 0730z and 1000z to 1130z. 20 meters is worth watching from 2030z to 0500z, although it may open as early as 1400z. 17 meters looks open from 1500z to 0300z and 15 meters from 1700z to 0100z. On 12 meters look for openings from 1800z to 2330z and on some days on 10 meters from 1900z to 2300z.