ARLP041 Propagation de KT7H: September 29, 1995

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
Seattle, WA September 29, 1995
To all radio amateurs

ARLP041 Propagation de KT7H

Solar flux was up a few points last week, and the average sunspot number was up quite a bit compared to the previous week. The average solar flux for the previous 90 days was 73, and the flux was above that value for all but one day last week. Still the activity is flat in the bottom of this solar cycle, and current projections don't predict any real improvement until at least a year or more from now.

For the short term look for solar flux to stay around 70 until the middle of October, then increase slightly to around the mid 70s. Geomagnetic activity should increase around October 2-6 due to a recurring coronal hole. After mid-month the geomagnetic conditions should become very stable.

Sunspot Numbers for September 21 through 27 were 20, 42, 50, 0, 38, 40 and 41, with a mean of 33. 10.7 cm flux was 73.9, 74.5, 75, 73.7, 74, 73.5 and 72.3, with a mean of 73.8.

Path projections for this week are to Sable Island (CY0) from Olympia, WA, Tulsa, OK, Kimberly, WI and Pittsburgh, PA signals from 0330z to 0930z. 40 meters should be good from 2330z to 0430z and again from 0830z to 1030z and around 1230z. Check 30 meters from 1530z to 0100z and 20 meters from 1600z to 2230z. 17 meters may be open some days from 1730z to 2000z.

From Tulsa 80 meters should be open from 2300z to 1100z, 40 meters around 1100z to 1400z and again from 2030z to 0300z, and 30 meters from 1330z to 2300z. 20 meters should be open most days from 1700z to 1930z.

From Wisconsin 80 meters should be good from 2200z to 1130z and 40 meters from 1300z to 0530z and again around 0900z to 1030z. 30 meters looks to be open from 1530z to 2000z and 2130z to 0100z. Check 20 meters from 1400z to 2230z. 17 meters may be open some days from 1630z to 2030z.

From Pittsburgh check 80 meters from 2100z to 1230z and 40 meters around 1030z to 1130z and then from 1330z to 0330z. Check 30 meters from 1230z to 0000z. 20 meters should be open most days from 1600z to 1930z.