ARLP043 Propagation de KT7H: October 13, 1995

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA October 13, 1995
To all radio amateurs

ARLP043 Propagation de KT7H

After a period of no sunspots, the solar flux took a big jump in the last few days, bumping up over 90 on Thursday. Over many paths this signals a return of propagation on 15 meters and above.

Geomagnetic conditions have been disturbed, with the A index in the double digits for the past week and a half. There have been many periods with a K index of four or greater, signaling greater absorption of HF radio signals, especially on polar paths.

Look for solar activity to slacken again, with solar flux back toward the low to mid seventies. Geomagnetic indices should be quite low after mid-month, with the possibility of a disturbance around October 24 and 25, and a big disturbance at the end of the month. Solar flux should also reach a minimum around 70 at month's end.

Sunspot Numbers for October 5 through 11 were 0, 0, 11, 25, 31, 49 and 72, with a mean of 26.9. 10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 71, 72.9, 74.3, 76.1, 82.3 and 89.5, with a mean of 76.6.

Path projection for this week is to Jan Mayen (JX) from Boston, Atlanta and Dallas.

From Boston, 80 meters should be open from 2130 to 1030z, 40 meters from 1830 to 0330 and 0700 to 1300, with the strongest 40 meter signals around 2030 and the best 80 meter signals around 2300. 30 meters should be good from 1130 to 2230, and 20 meters from 1500 to 1900. 17 meters may be open some days around 1800.

From Atlanta check 80 meters from 2300 to 1000z, 40 meters from 2100 to 1130, and 30 meters from 1230 to 0200. 20 meters looks good most days from 1300 to 1800, with peak signals around 1400.

Dallas should have 80 meter openings from 2330 to 1000z and 40 meters open from 2230 to 1200. 30 meters looks open from 1230 to 0200, with best signals around 1300 and again at 2200. 20 meters looks good most days around 1700 to 1830, but may open as long as 1400 to 2200.